Climate Change Downscaling

Novus applies both dynamic and statistical “downscaling” forecasts from global to local using a global circulation model (GCM), combined with local climate observations, to predict future climate change at a local scale.

Our dynamic modelling capabilities typically include WRF (with Climate Core), and Regional Climate Models (RCM). We also use statistical downscaling which involves historical climate measurement data and statistical models to project future climate change. Our preferred approach is to link dynamic with statistical downscaling as a probabilistical analysis method to increase confidence and improve reliability associated with the prediction of climate change impacts.